The number of English Language Learners in U.S. public schools has been growing steadily over the years (see The Best Ways To Keep-Up With Current ELL/ESL/EFL News & Research).
Of course, none of these projections anticipated the rise of Trump Administration policies ranging from reducing acceptance of refugees to the lowest in history ( see Trump Administration Cuts Refugee Number To Lowest Level Ever) to its inhuman immigration policies (see The Best Resources For Learning About The Terrible Practice Of Separating Immigrant Parents From Their Children), including its dangerous asylum changes (see Supreme Court Says Trump Can Bar Asylum Seekers While Legal Fight Continues and today’s move, U.S. announces asylum deal with Honduras, could send migrants to one of world’s most violent nations).
I’m not aware of anyone doing any serious number-crunching to anticipate how these policies will affect English Language Learner student enrollment here in the U.S., though I would love to hear from anyone who has done it.
I do have some guesses, though, and I’d also be very eager to hear confirming or different opinions.
Right now, ELLs make-up approximately 9.6% of U.S. public school enrollment (see Hot Off The Press! The Most Up-To-Date Statistics On English Language Learners In The U.S.). That number came from the Fall of 2016, which are the latest numbers available.
I’m guessing that there will be a slight uptick in those numbers in 2017 based on the upsurge in immigration that took place then. However, then I’m guessing the numbers will stay the same for the first time in 2018 statistics, have a slight drop for the first time this year, and then go down again slightly this year. I’m expecting a more substantial drop next year, perhaps to as much as 9.2% and then, assuming/hoping that Donald Trump loses the election, the numbers to begin to move up again.
The preceding paragraph is completely filled with guesses.
Let me know what you think or what you know….